It’s Sam Darnold-or-bust in slim QB market for needy Giants

It’s Sam Darnold-or-bust in slim QB market for needy Giants

Second in a three-part series on the Giants quarterback issue. Coming tomorrow: Examining the rest of intriguing but unproven QBs, retreads, etc. 

There is one way to make the enormous expectations that Sam Darnold faced as a rookie feel small. 

If Darnold signs a big-money, multi-year, free agent contract with the Giants to be the solution to their quarterback predicament, the pressure in his return to New York likely would trump any savior burden that accompanied his arrival as a first-round draft pick of the Jets in 2018. 

While the expectation is that the Giants will draft a quarterback in 2025, a dangerous possibility exists that picking No. 3 means that they will be iced out of the only two certain first-rounders: Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Cam Ward — neither of whom is considered a can’t-miss prospect, anyway. 

So, what if general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll turn to free agency for a franchise quarterback who can quickly cool their H๏τ seats? In that case, there’s Darnold … and everyone else. 

“None of the free agents move the needle at all, for me, except Sam Darnold,” NBC Sports NFL analyst Chris Simms told The Post. “This is such a big year for the Giants that you can’t deal with some guy who, ‘We see talent and potential, and we think we can make his throwing a little better.’ You need a guy who can run the offense, make the throws and all that.” 

Sam Darnold #14 of the Minnesota Vikings prepares to snap the ball during the third quarter against the Los Angeles Rams during the NFC Wild Card. Getty Images

Dissecting Darnold 

Why would the Vikings let go of a 27-year-old Pro Bowler coming off career highs with 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns? 

Well, they might not, even after Darnold’s back-to-back, season-ending stinkers dropped a 13-win team from the cusp of earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs to a first-round exit. The Vikings are flush with salary cap space (about $58 million) and could apply the franchise tag (one-year, $41.3 million). 

If they do part ways, the irony is that the Vikings depth chart could be J.J. McCarthy — whom the Giants bypᴀssed in the 2024 first round — and Giants cast-off Daniel Jones. 

The Vikings could re-sign Jones — who still counts for $22 million on the Giants’ 2025 salary cap from his failed $160 million extension — instead of Darnold as a cheaper bridge to McCarthy (still recovering from two knee surgeries). 

“Going back to Darnold’s draft day, everybody does think highly of his skill set, and that will always help him,” one league source with salary-cap expertise told The Post. “But there are some teams that are thinking, ‘We just saw the absolute ceiling, given how good the circumstances were around him.’ 

Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) scrambles out of the pocket against the Seattle Seahawks. Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

“There will be some trepidation, but Darnold’s free agency is the greatest timing in the world because last year we had six quarterbacks go in the top 12 of the draft and now we’ll get two in the first round. That is mᴀssively beneficial to him.” 

As usual, there are more quarterback-needy teams than solutions. 

The тιтans and Browns are best positioned for Sanders and Ward given that they hold the draft’s No. 1 and No. 2 picks, respectively. But the Raiders are in an equally dire situation to the Giants, and the Jets, Steelers, Colts and Saints all could make big changes, too. 

How would Darnold fare with the Giants? There are concerns that it would look like his three-year struggles with the under-talented Jets — or like when he completed 53 percent of his pᴀsses and took 11 sacks in his two most recent games. 

Jets quarterback Sam Darnold (14) during a 2018 practice. Bill Kostroun/New York Post

“The last two games are more of an indication of what Sam Darnold actually is,” one AFC pro personnel scout said. “I think the Vikings did a really good job of trying to protect him, and I think he was rejuvenated. 

“The problem New York has is it’s not just the quarterback — it’s the pieces around him. How are they going to fix the offensive line again? If you can’t run the ball, it’s going to be very hard for an average quarterback to play really good football. Setting up play-actions and bootlegs and not just straight drop-back [pᴀssing] makes him a much better quarterback.” 

It’s a big risk to take considering the estimates on Darnold’s market. 

The salary cap expert pegs Darnold’s contract as inflation-adjusted facsimile of the three-year, $100 million contract ($50 million guaranteed) that Baker Mayfield signed with the Buccaneers last season. Mayfield’s was a significant jump over Geno Smith’s three-year, $75 million contract ($40 million guaranteed) with the Seahawks in 2023. 

“Because of the weak draft class, there are going to be some desperate teams,” the expert said. “Look at the Raiders. They were trying to trade up for Jayden Daniels however they possibly could. They don’t, and the whole regime gets fired. This is Darnold’s best opportunity to cash in. You can make an argument to sign one more one-year deal after the way he finished, but the odds he stays healthy and puts up those stats is close to zero.” 

Mayfield, Smith and Darnold often are grouped together as journeymen quarterbacks who finally fulfilled draft expectations on their fourth teams. As one former NFL general manager said, the trio is “a great reminder that quarterback development is never in a straight line.” 

The Giants’ path might come down to an honest self-ᴀssessment of the goal. Is it to return to respectability as quickly as possible? Or to find and develop their answer to Dak Prescott (No. 2 in 2024 MVP vote) and NFC Championship game counterparts Jalen Hurts and Daniels within the division? 

“I don’t think the strategy of getting a journeyman who has failed and counting on him resurfacing is a winning proposition,” former Giants scouting director Marc Ross said in November, “but especially in light of having to go against Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.” 

Giants general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll. Robert Sabo for NY Post

Other proven starters 

The free agent quarterback market when negotiations are first permissible on March 10 could look different than today. 

Will any of the Jets-Aaron Rodgers, Falcons-Kirk Cousins and Saints-Derek Carr unions still exist? 

Cousins almost certainly will be available despite the Falcons claiming to be comfortable with a $40 million cap hit for an unhappy backup. Because he has a no-trade clause, Cousins can dictate where he lands, essentially forcing the Falcons to release him while being stuck with most of the bill while he plays elsewhere for a league-minimum salary. 

Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (18) warms up on the field prior to the game against the New York Giants. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

There is little in place to convince the benched Cousins, 36, that his best path to redemption is with the Giants. The Browns — coached by his former Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski — seem like a good fit for Cousins, and that could open some draft options for the Giants. 

If Cousins’ situation sounds familiar, it’s what Russell Wilson did with the Broncos last offseason. Wilson visited with the Giants before signing with the Steelers, where he showed flashes of his old Pro Bowl self before flaming out in five straight losses to end the season. 

Schoen said “you can’t make them” sign when asked about not bringing in Wilson to compete with Jones last offseason. Perhaps the job would be more enticing a second time to Wilson, 36, with Jones off the team and fewer alternatives available. 

Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson throws a pᴀss against the Baltimore Ravens during the first half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game, Saturday, Jan. 11, 2025. AP

“I don’t think Russ is a starter in the league next season,” Simms said. 

Wilson’s best contract comparisons might be the two-year deals signed by Case Keenum and Sam Bradford late in their careers — adjusted for inflation up to about $50 million. 

“I probably wouldn’t touch him,” the scout said. “Why was he better in Pittsburgh than in Denver? They can run the ball and play to his strengths.” 

Rodgers got his fill of losing in New York with a better roster than the Giants. Carr, whose brother won a Super Bowl as Eli Manning’s backup, might be more interested. 

But Rodgers, 41, and Carr, 33, essentially were the final two choices for the Jets in 2023. 

Look how that worked out. 

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