No pollster was more accurate in predicting Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris than Daily Mail along with J.L. Partners.

In yet another bad night for the public polling industry (with special mention to Ann Selzer, whose election eve Iowa poll was off by a whopping 17 points), the Daily Mail’s numbers stood out as the best in the country.

President-elect Donald Trump is now projected to win the popular vote — we were one of the only pollsters to make that call.

J.L. Partners/Daily Mail predicted a 50-47 popular vote, nailing Trump’s share and only missing his margin of victory by 0.5%, based on preliminary estimates of the national vote share.

The results showed us ahead of a table of 20 different major pollsters, all of which were less accurate, eight of which predicted Trump losing the popular vote.

President-elect Donald Trump is now projected to win the popular vote — we were one of the only pollsters to make that call

No pollster was more accurate in predicting Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris than Daily Mail along with J.L. Partners

‘Our technique used mixed method polling, innovative weighting techniques, and was grounded in in-depth interviews with voters to get to the reality of the result,’ said James Johnson of J.L. Partners.

‘Where others hedged or got distracted, we at the Mail stuck with our guns and got it bang on.’

Our polling method focused on reaching potential voters who had been routinely overlooked in 2016 and 2020. These are low-engagement voters who may not have voted in recent elections and are unlikely to participate in opinion surveys.

These methods reached the voters who made the difference for Trump: men — white, black, Hispanic, Asian, non-college-educated and working-class.

We also conducted in-depth, in-person, 90-minute discussions with individual voters in places like Georgia, Pennsylvania, and elsewhere.

These interviews gave us insights into voting behavior that others ignored.

Over-reliance on outdated techniques, like online-only surveys and phone polls, resulted in over-sampling of people who lean Democratic, like young professionals and older, white, liberal women.

Our final nationwide poll, included a high percentage of respondents who hadn’t voted before (nearly two of ten people in the sample came from this group).

A plurality of the polls incorrectly predicted Kamala Harris winning the popular vote

Once again, the American media landscape is littered with the shredded reports of the pollsters who got it wrong. We can proudly say that J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com was not among them.

These are the reasons we saw the shifts no one else did. We found the undercurrents that others did not. We took modelling decisions others did not.

By seeing beyond the numbers and using novel approaches, we were able to find the nuanced drivers of this election and make the right call.

Two Senate races remain uncalled, with Democrats hanging on to leads in Arizona and Nevada, which would leave the Republicans at a 52-48 seat majority, a gain of three seats.

Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Trump ally Kari Lake in Arizona by less than two points, with 79% of the vote in to take Kyrsten Sinema’s seat.

In Nevada, incumbent Jacky Rosen leads Republican Sam Brown by a little over a point with 95% of the votes in, with Nevada polling expert Jon Ralston declaring it ‘game over’ for Brown.

House of Representatives results continue to move slowly, with Republicans at 212 seats, six shy of retaining their majority.

The Democrats have won 200 seats and lead in 12 of the uncalled races, which would top them out at 212, a loss of one seat from their minority position in 2022.

Lakshya Jain, a polls analyst for Split Ticket, gave Democrats a no more than 15% chance of late voting tallies providing them with the comebacks necessary to win a shock majority.