DETROIT — I hate discussions that turn sports into a mathematical equation — it’s supposed to be entertainment, not Mrs. Sullivan’s Algebra II class — but it’s Halloween and I’ll dress up for this column as an analytics nerd.
Picture my pocket protector, calculator, tattoo of Daryl Morey and group pH๏τo from the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.
Basketball, when broken down to its most boring, is a series of geometrical shapes and probabilities.
Karl-Anthony Towns shoots a 3-pointer during the Knicks’ win over the Heat on Oct. 30, 2024.NBAE via Getty Images
Which brings us to the biggest theme of Tom Thibodeau’s offense through four games — 3-point attempts.
Notice the use of “attempts” instead of “makes” or “efficiency.” They’re not mutually exclusive when calculating a projected point total, but there’s an important distinction. The Knicks (2-2) sH๏τ 29 3-pointers per game in their two defeats, an average that would project to worst in the league. Opponents, meanwhile, averaged 48.5 3-point attempts in the Knicks’ losses — a number skewed by Boston’s near-historic shooting on opening night, but nonetheless relevant.
In today’s NBA, it’s virtually impossible to win games with that type of discrepancy. The 3-pointer has become such an efficient sH๏τ that launching fewer in mᴀss is a recipe for the draft lottery. It also runs counter to the Knicks’ roster construction, which prioritized shooting in the offseason with Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby.
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