NFL divisional round predictions: Picks against the spread for Saturday

The Post’s Dave Blezow gives his predictions for Texans-Chiefs, Commanders-Lions.

Welcome to the best weekend of football the NFL has to offer each year, for my money.

Four games over two days. All of the powerhouses are here — the Chiefs and Lions and Eagles and Ravens and Bills. They are joined by the upstart Commanders and rookie QB Jayden Daniels, and the still-rising Texans and second-year QB C.J. Stroud.

Then there are the Rams, led by the Super Bowl-winning coach-quarterback combo of Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford, fresh off their rout of the Vikings in a game relocated to Arizona due to the Los Angeles wildfires.

Let’s take it from the top:

Patrick Mahomes looks to return to the AFC Championship once again. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

SATURDAY

Houston Texans (+8.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS; Over 41.5: Interesting matchup both on the field and the betting screen.

When the teams met at Arrowhead four days before Christmas, the 14-1 Chiefs were favored by just 3.5 points at home over the 9-5 Texans. The reason for the small line was that Patrick Mahomes had suffered what looked to be a serious ankle injury the previous week vs. Cleveland.

After being questionable all week, Mahomes came on after a Stroud interception and led an 11-play, 66-yard, six-minute-plus drive that culminated in his 15-yard touchdown run. The Chiefs went on to win, 27-19, and cover the spread, but that margin would not be enough here.

For Chiefs backers, it’s easy to make the case that they’ll beat the Texans by more this time with Mahomes healthy, and Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo having just seen what Houston has to offer.

Texans bettors can point to WR Tank Dell suffering a serious injury in the third quarter at 17-16 and the team still hanging tough throughout. The latter is where I’m landing, with the thought that the Texans will benefit from their recent visit to Arrowhead.

Though Unders were 5-1 in the wild-card weekend, this number seems low. The teams combined for 46 points on Dec. 21, and that was with Mahomes ailing and six drives of at least 10 plays sapping the clock.

Chiefs, 27-20.

C.J. Stroud and the Texans could prove to be a tougher out. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

DETROIT LIONS (-9.5) over Washington Commanders; Under 55.5: The most impressive coaching feat I’ve seen this season was performed by Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn.

In Week 18, with first place in the NFC North and a first-round bye on the line, Glenn’s defense turned Sam Darnold into a pumpkin and left the Vikings flying machine in pieces on the ground. Not only that, Glenn showed the Rams how to do the same thing, as they KO’d the Vikings from the playoffs.

It’s amazing we’re talking about the Lions defense at all considering the juggernaut the team possesses on the other side of the ball. Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs and Co. should do mᴀssive damage if they get the ball back quickly and in good field position.

Both the line and total are in such precarious spots, which makes it tough to be a handicapper and bettor. Can the Lions pull away enough to inoculate their backers from a Jayden Daniels backdoor cover? Will the Commanders offense contribute enough to push it over a huge number? But this is why it’s so fun.

Lions, 38-17.

Betting on the NFL?

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Lions (Locks 8-9 in 2024-25).

LAST WEEK: 5-7 (2-4 sides, 3-4 Over/Unders).

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back 31 years. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.