The biggest game left for the Giants during this nightmarish season is a Dec. 22 matchup between the Jaguars and Raiders.
Let that sink in.
The race to be the worst team in the NFL — a dubious distinction loathed by players and coaches with jobs on the line but celebrated by fans hoping to secure the No. 1 pick in the draft — is entering the four-week homestretch.
The Giants and Raiders are tied for the NFL’s worst record at 2-11 — one game ahead of six teams lurking at 3-10.
The tiebreaker advantage currently belongs to the Giants — who have played the easier schedule so far — but is projected to switch to the Raiders, whose opponents’ winning percentage is slightly lower (.538 to .543) when accounting for all 17 games.
So, who is the worst team in the NFL? Who is in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 pick?
Which quarterback-needy team could end up with the choice between Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Cam Ward?
The case for the Giants
Remaining schedule (combined winning percentage of .596): vs. Ravens (8-5), at Falcons (6-7), vs. Colts (6-7), at Eagles (11-2)
If the Eagles continue nipping at the Lions’ heels for a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, then they could be forced to play their starters in Week 18.
In that case, the Giants’ remaining schedule is considered the fifth-most difficult, according to Tankathon, while the Raiders’ remaining schedule ranks No. 23.
If the Eagles are locked in as NFC East champions without a bye, however, the Giants’ odds of a fan-rejected win increase if they are facing backups.
Hall of Fame coach and announcer John Madden once said, “You can’t win a game if you don’t score any points.”
Well, the Giants barely score. Their 14.9 points per game is the league’s worst average by more than two points.
The strongest phase of the team — the defense — has been depleted by injuries to the point that only five true starters remain.
Even top backups are going down, so that the Giants now are starting players who were healthy scratches (Jordon Riley) or practice-squad bodies (Elijah Garcia), and throwing mid-week acquisitions (Cory Durden) right into the fire.
Much like the Raiders, the Giants are on their third starting quarterback.
Drew Lock’s career pᴀsser rating, completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception ratio all are worse — albeit in a larger sample size — than that of his Raiders counterpart, Desmond Ridder.
On the analytics side, the Giants rank:
l No. 31 out of 32 teams in ESPN’s Football Power Index, which is designed to measure a team’s true strength on a net points scale (expected point margin against an average opponent on a neutral field).
l No. 28 in net EPA (expected points added) per play.
l No. 29 in the Simple Rating System, created by Pro Football Reference to measure team quality relative to average.
l No. 28 in the FTNFantasy.com’s Weighted DVOA, a widely accepted measurement of a team’s efficiency generated by comparing success on every play to a league average based on situation and opponent. More weight is given to recent games.
The case for the Raiders
Remaining schedule (combined winning percentage of .423): vs. Falcons (6-7), vs. Jaguars (3-10), at Saints (5-8), vs. Chargers (8-5)
Start where the Giants’ case ended.
The Raiders rank worse than the Giants in two of those four metrics: No. 29 in net EPA per play and No. 31 in the Simple Rating System.
The Football Power Index (No. 25) and weighted DVOA (No. 27) favor the Raiders.
Since Oct. 1 — the duration of an NFL-long nine-game losing streak — the Raiders only have played three one-score games, including two against the rival Chiefs, who win a close game every week regardless of the opponent.
It adds up to the Raiders owning a point differential of -125 that ranks No. 31.
Whereas the Giants can’t score, the Raiders’ bigger issues are keeping points off the board (No. 29 scoring defense) and ball security (a league-worst -17 turnover margin).
Will it get any better? The Raiders played last week without nine of their season-opening 22 starters.
Yes, that Jaguars game looks like a coin flip that could push the Raiders into three-win territory and leave the Giants alone … but the Raiders have the worst in-game win probability in terms of being able to control games from start to finish, per ESPN’s FPI.
The other threats
Among the six 3-10 teams, the Patriots stand out as playing the third-most difficult remaining schedule and potentially winning final tiebreakers given their 17-game opponents’ winning percentage is a hard-to-catch .462.
Even with rapidly improving rookie quarterback Drake Maye, where is their win coming from among two games against the Bills (11-2), a visit to the Cardinals (6-7) and a home game against the Chargers (8-5)?
Perhaps the Bills in Week 18, if the Chiefs have already locked up the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
The Jaguars (Mac Jones) and Browns (Jameis Winston) are starting backup quarterbacks.
The Browns are ranked last in Total DVOA.
The Panthers are ranked last in the FPI and EPA per play — and have the worst point differential — but seem to be improving week-by-week in quarterback Bryce Young’s return from a benching.
The тιтans are facing potential locker room splintering because the offense is letting down the defense.
The Jets are the Jets, continually inventing new ways to blow fourth-quarter leads.
