Josh Allen would be the unanimous NFL MVP if the season ended today. But it does not, and we have seven weeks for other candidates to shine — and for gamblers to uncover betting value.
The Buffalo Bills quarterback became the favorite at all sportsbooks (currently +125 at FanDuel) immediately following his dramatic game-sealing touchdown run on fourth down against the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday. Buffalo is now 9-2, with Allen consistently delivering, while other quarterbacks have distinctly weaker cases.
Allen is undoubtedly the justifiable favorite, but the regular season can still take a variety of turns. As I process those permutations and scour the betting board, I constantly return to one long sH๏τ who has a viable path more likely than the odds suggest: Saquon Barkley at 65/1 (50/1 at other sportsbooks).
The Philadelphia Eagles weapon leads the NFL in scrimmage yards and rushing yards per game. He would lead in touchdowns, had Jalen Hurts not vultured so many. In fact, Barkley has been tackled on the 1-yard line prior to five Hurts rushing touchdowns. Give Barkley those and he’s tops in the NFL. More importantly, Barkley could thrive down the stretch by avoiding those fluky outcomes with expected regression.
- See more at OnlyPlayers
Barkley’s biggest obstacle is his position. A quarterback has won this award 11 straight years and in each of those seasons, the MVP QB led a top-two seed in either conference, while also posting impressive statistics. But what if this year’s top seeds do not produce a quarterback that fits the conventional profile?
Barkley would definitely need Allen and the Bills to stumble, but as we all know, an NFL season can spiral at any moment. Patrick Mahomes (12/1 odds) and the Chiefs are 9-1, but his stats are beyond pedestrian, not to mention a league-high 11 interceptions.
In the NFC, Jared Goff (+800 odds) of the 9-1 Detroit Lions is far from Allen’s talent or value but by positional default, he is part of the conversation. However, he can easily have another high-interception game or voters could agree with me and attribute the team’s success and most stats to his strong supporting cast. Hurts (17/1 odds) plays the right position for 8-2 Philly but Barkley could certainly emerge, although there is a risk of cannibalizing one another’s votes.
Barkley and the Eagles have three high-visibility games remaining, beginning Sunday night at the Los Angeles Rams. They also travel to Baltimore and host Pittsburgh in marquee late afternoon TV slots (or flexed to prime time). Given their NFC East compeтιтion is gradually unraveling, finishing 5-2 or 6-1 is conceivable.
The quarterback MVP streak cannot continue for eternity. Fundamentally, it has to end at some point. We recently saw a wide receiver (DeVonta Smith) win the Heisman Trophy and a non-quarterback (Colorado’s Travis Hunter) is currently the overwhelming favorite. So maybe now the NFL bucks its trend.
Barkley checks all the MVP boxes and pᴀsses the smell test, thanks to the season’s most memorable play — a backwards hurdle that will resonate for years.
