FIFA Considers Scenarios if Iran Withdraws from the 2026 World Cup: Iraq and UAE Likely to Benefit

A Potential Shift in Group Dynamics

FIFA is currently weighing multiple scenarios in case Iran decides to withdraw from the 2026 World Cup, which is set to take place in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. The possible withdrawal would be a major blow to Iranian football fans and their team, but it could also create an opportunity for other Asian teams, particularly Iraq and the UAE, who would be in a favorable position to secure a spot in the tournament.

Iraq’s Likely Playoff Opportunity

If Iran pulls out, Iraq, which is currently in a strong position to make the playoffs as an Asian representative, would be the first to benefit. Iraq’s national team is closely watching developments, with the possibility of taking Iran’s spot in the World Cup. Similarly, the UAE, which has a less favorable position than Iraq, would also see a better chance of qualification should the Iranian team withdraw.

FIFA has not confirmed any official replacements yet, but the current group dynamics suggest that Iraq is likely to be the first team considered as a replacement for Iran’s withdrawal, given their qualification standing.

The Fine for Withdrawal: Potential Financial Impact on Iran

The Iranian Football Federation is under significant pressure, not only because of the potential political and diplomatic fallout but also due to the financial penalties they could face for withdrawing from the World Cup. If Iran pulls out more than 30 days before the opening match, the federation will be fined $325,000. However, should the decision occur within the 30-day window before the tournament kicks off, that fine would double to $650,000, a major financial penalty for the already strained Iranian sports system.

These fines are meant to discourage late withdrawals and maintain stability in the competition, but they add to the growing list of challenges the Iranian Football Federation faces as they navigate both political and sporting pressures.

Group G: Iran’s Current World Cup Situation

Currently, Iran is in Group G for the 2026 World Cup, alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand. Their opening match, set to take place in Seattle, was considered crucial, as it was expected to be a “match for pride” — a symbolic moment for the Iranian team, regardless of the result. The potential withdrawal of Iran would disrupt this dynamic, changing the entire group’s structure and the scheduling of matches.

For teams like Belgium and Egypt, this could mean an easier path to the knockout stages, but for New Zealand, this might represent a missed opportunity to compete against a full-strength Iranian team. These changes would also disrupt the balance of power in the tournament, forcing FIFA to adjust group fixtures and possibly reschedule certain matches.

The Road Ahead: What Happens if Iran Withdraws?

While no decision has been made yet, FIFA is working on contingency plans to address the impact of an Iranian withdrawal. The global football governing body is evaluating how best to handle the sudden change, including which team would take Iran’s spot and how to adjust the World Cup schedule accordingly.