With nuclear talks in Geneva collapsing without a deal and the biggest U.S. war build‑up in the Gulf in decades, Washington and Tehran are staring at the same brutal question: strike or standoff? Two carrier strike groups, stealth jets and thousands of troops now ring Iran, while missile batteries and naval drills on both sides raise the risk that a misread radar blip becomes the spark for a shooting war.

Yet diplomats insist diplomacy isn’t dead. Since last year the two governments have inched through Omani‑mediated rounds in Muscat, Rome and now Geneva, arguing over sanctions relief, Iran’s enrichment levels and U.S. demands to curb missiles and proxy militias. Iran says giving up enrichment equals surrender; Trump’s team says anything less than zero enrichment is worthless paper. Both capitals have drawn red lines so hard that any real compromise looks like political suicide at home.

Allies are nervous. Britain has quietly refused to let U.S. bombers launch strikes from Diego Garcia or RAF Fairford, citing fears of breaking international law, even as American aircraft and personnel continue to mass at those very sites in “deterrent” mode. 3 On U.S. television, Vice President JD Vance promises any attack would be fast and limited, not another endless Middle East war — a “surgical” option if diplomacy fails. 4 Markets, generals and ordinary Iranians hear something different: a countdown in which one bad night — a drone shoot‑down, a tanker hit — could tip the balance from tense standoff to a strike decision that no one can easily take back.