BREAKING INVESTIGATION: it would mark the most dangerous U.S.–Iran confrontation in decades. As of 2024, no such strike has occurred; it remains a dramatic “what if” scenario, but one that reflects very real fears inside military and diplomatic circles.

Iran has spent years building a large arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles aimed at U.S. ships and bases across the region. American planners, in turn, have rehearsed how they would respond if a carrier group came under concentrated fire: layered missile defenses at sea, followed by rapid and overwhelming strikes on launch sites, radar systems and command centers deep inside Iran.

War‑game simulations often resemble this headline: an opening Iranian salvo that tests U.S. defenses, then a devastating American counter‑attack that cripples multiple bases within minutes. What those models cannot fully capture is what follows — spiraling retaliation, cyber‑attacks, regional allies dragged into the fight, oil prices surging and hard‑liners on both sides demanding escalation.

The sobering reality is that neither Washington nor Tehran can be sure it could control a conflict once it starts. Keeping “31 missiles” and “12 vanished bases” in the realm of simulations, not history, is now a core mission for diplomats working far from the carriers and missile silos.