The death of El Mencho, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), represents a significant turning point in Mexico’s ongoing drug war and has sent shockwaves throughout the U.S. and Mexican governments. His demise marks the end of one of the most powerful and ruthless criminal enterprises in the world, but it also highlights the complex and volatile nature of cartel dynamics.

Immediate Retaliation: A Dangerous Sign of Things to Come

The retaliatory violence that has followed El Mencho’s death is deeply concerning, and it is no surprise. Cartels like the CJNG maintain tight control over their territories and have a well-established network of operatives, who are not only involved in drug trafficking but also in enforcing loyalty within the ranks.

These violent acts, such as road blockades, vehicle burnings, arson, and airport disruptions, demonstrate the cartel’s ability to create chaos across entire regions. The attacks also indicate the power vacuum left by El Mencho’s death, which is quickly being filled by violent tactics meant to reassert control and send a message to both rival cartels and authorities.

Puerto Vallarta, being a tourist destination, is particularly vulnerable. Disrupting key tourist hubs is a clear indication that the CJNG (or its affiliates) will use any means necessary to maintain their influence, including targeting civilians and businesses. Tourism, an important revenue generator for Mexico, could also become a major vulnerability if cartels continue to escalate their activities in these regions.

The Larger Implications: What Does This Mean for the U.S. and Mexico?

For both the U.S. and Mexican governments, this wave of violence serves as a grim reminder of the cartels’ power and reach. Even with El Mencho gone, CJNG’s operations will likely continue under new leadership — whether that comes from internal succession within the cartel or through alliances with other criminal organizations.

In addition to the fentanyl, methamphetamine, and cocaine that are smuggled into the U.S., the CJNG has also been involved in money laundering, kidnappings, human trafficking, and extortion. The cartels’ tentacles extend far beyond the drug trade, and their impact on the social fabric of both Mexico and the U.S. is profound.

The U.S. will likely face more fentanyl coming across the border, regardless of El Mencho’s death. Cartels are resilient, and a power vacuum often leads to more fragmentation and competition, potentially resulting in more violence and chaos as smaller factions fight for supremacy.

For Mexico, the situation is dire. The government is already struggling with widespread violence from multiple cartels operating across the country. The CJNG was one of the most dominant players, but now, others like the Sinaloa cartel or the Zetas may try to capitalize on El Mencho’s absence and increase their presence.

What Can Be Done?

The situation underscores the complexity of the cartel problem and how simply eliminating a high-profile figure doesn’t dismantle the broader criminal infrastructure. There is no quick fix. The U.S. and Mexico will need to cooperate more closely than ever to tackle the root causes of cartel violence, such as:

1. Crackdown on weapons trafficking: Cartels are heavily armed and use military-grade weapons that are easy to acquire through black-market channels.

2. Addressing corruption: Cartels often operate with the help of corrupt officials, which makes it difficult to effectively combat their power. Both the U.S. and Mexico need to focus on rooting out corruption within law enforcement and other institutions.

3. Economic opportunities: Cartels flourish in regions with economic inequality. Offering alternatives to the young people who are often recruited into cartel violence could help reduce recruitment.

4. Strategic law enforcement cooperation: The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and Mexican military should continue to coordinate in targeting not only the cartel leadership but also the broader infrastructure, including money laundering operations and smuggling routes.

Long-Term Outlook: A Shifting Power Dynamic?

Ultimately, El Mencho’s death might change the leadership of the CJNG, but it is unlikely to end cartel violence. Cartels are, by their nature, fluid entities, and when one leader falls, new players emerge to fill the void. El Mencho’s successor or rival factions will likely continue to fuel the drug trade and violence unless comprehensive measures are put in place to weaken their power base.

Moreover, international cooperation between Mexico, the U.S., and other countries will remain crucial in curbing the cartel’s activities. Fentanyl, in particular, will continue to be a dangerous threat, as the U.S. struggles to stop the flow of the synthetic opioid across the border.

While El Mencho’s death is a significant blow to the CJNG, it remains to be seen whether it leads to lasting peace or simply a new phase of bloodshed as the cartels fight for dominance.