New York’s glittering skyline hides a growing fear: that the financial engine of America is quietly stalling as wealth, people and businesses head for the exits.

Since the pandemic, high‑net‑worth residents, hedge funds and tech firms have steadily migrated to lower‑tax states like Florida and Texas, taking with them not just salaries, but investment capital and future growth. Some analysts warn that up to $1 trillion in assets and economic activity could be at risk over the coming decade if the trend accelerates — a shock big enough to reshape the city’s budget and politics for a generation.

Early warning signs are already visible. Office towers in Midtown and Lower Manhattan sit partially empty, property tax collections are under pressure, and the transit system faces yawning deficits as white‑collar workers commute less and spend more time — and money — somewhere else. Talk of a New York “doom loop” has moved from fringe blogs to mainstream boardrooms.

City leaders insist the obituary is premature. They point to a resilient finance sector, a rebounding tourism industry and a still‑magnetic cultural scene that draws global talent. New luxury developments continue to rise, and venture money is still flowing into AI, biotech and media startups headquartered in the five boroughs.

But beneath the official optimism, one question grows louder: how many billionaires, businesses and young professionals can New York lose before the math stops working? The answer may determine whether this is just another cyclical scare — or the beginning of a slow, grinding economic spiral in the city that once seemed too big to fail.