World capitals are on edge after a chilling new assessment from senior Western intelligence officials who say the United States and Iran are now “on the threshold of open conflict” following a week of tit‑for‑tat strikes and rapidly hardening rhetoric.

According to the leaked briefing, seen by multiple allied governments, the risk of a direct military clash is “no longer theoretical.” U.S. bases across the Middle East have shifted to maximum alert after fresh rocket and drone attacks blamed on Iran‑backed militias, while American warships and fighter jets continue to surge into the region in a show of force.

In Tehran, commanders of the Revolutionary Guard have vowed to answer any U.S. strike with “immediate and symmetrical retaliation” on American assets and regional allies, explicitly naming bases, embassies and energy infrastructure as potential targets. State media is broadcasting footage of missile drills and mass rallies, framing the standoff as a test of national survival.

European diplomats are issuing stark public warnings and frantic private appeals, urging Washington and Tehran to re‑open direct communication channels before a miscalculation turns a proxy shadow war into a full‑scale regional inferno. Oil markets are spiking, insurers are quietly pricing in worst‑case scenarios in the Strait of Hormuz, and ordinary citizens from Baghdad to Tel Aviv are bracing for the unknown.

Tonight, the question is no longer whether tensions are rising — but whether the final line before open war has already been crossed.